Jodie Sinclair, Senior Partner and Head of Employment, Pensions & Immigration at Bevan Brittan, examines the issues surrounding an ageing global population
The global healthcare landscape faces a mounting challenge: a projected shortage of 4.1m health workers by 2030, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). This shortfall includes 0.6m physicians, 2.3m nurses, and 1.3m other healthcare professionals. In addition, the rapid ageing of the global population, particularly in regions such as the European Union, where 30 per cent of the population is expected to be over 65 by 2050, is up from 21 per cent in 2022. As life expectancy increases, so too does the demand for healthcare services, placing unprecedented strain on already overstretched systems.
This demographic shift is not just a healthcare issue but a societal one, reshaping workforce dynamics across all sectors. Older individuals are working longer—often part-time—and balancing caregiving responsibilities for both elderly relatives and younger family members. An NHS survey highlights this trend: more than half the workers aged 66 and older are employed part-time, compared to just 7.5 per cent of those aged 21–30. Employers must now navigate the complexities of supporting an ageing workforce as well as different generational drivers, while adapting to the evolving needs of their organisations and industries.
Technology has the potential to mitigate some of these workforce challenges, and unlock opportunities for organisations and systems, but it also introduces its own complexities. According to a survey by the University of Oxford and Ipsos, individuals within the workforce often lack confidence in using health technologies, fearing they may be excluded from healthcare if they cannot access or navigate digital tools. While both workers and patients see a growing role for technology in health, both value face-to-face interactions with healthcare professionals. Digital interventions and tools need to be enablers, rather than blockers, for a workforce working under increasing challenges.
Given the various challenges, a multifaceted approach is essential to strengthen both the capacity and the capability of the health and care workforce. Policymakers and healthcare leaders must align education with population health needs, invest in workforce training, and embrace digital tools to enhance efficiency and effectiveness. Equally critical is addressing the different generational drivers for both education and career development. In addition, developing targeted recruitment and retention strategies for rural and underserved areas, ensuring equitable access to care, could go some way to alleviate further disparities.
MENA issues
In the UAE, in particular, workforce shortages, demographic shifts, and the rise of technology are reshaping the sector. A significant portion of older healthcare workers in the region continue to work despite managing their own health conditions. According to industry estimates, one in five older healthcare professionals is dealing with chronic health issues. This overlap between the healthcare workforce and patient demographics presents a dual challenge for policymakers. According to Mansoor Ahmed, former Executive Director for Healthcare at Colliers in the MENA region, older professionals bring experience but also require supportive work environments to manage their health effectively.
In addition, many older workers shoulder caregiving responsibilities for elderly relatives and younger family members. This caregiving burden can lead to higher stress levels, reduced work hours, and increased absenteeism, further impacting the healthcare workforce’s efficiency. Flexible work arrangements, such as part-time roles and remote working options, are increasingly common among older workers. However, such patterns necessitate a larger workforce to fill gaps, often resulting in an overreliance on casual contracts.
As older healthcare professionals extend their careers, younger workers may face limited opportunities to enter the field. This dynamic contributes to skills gaps and stagnation in workforce development. Research by Colliers indicates that by the end of this decade, Abu Dhabi will face a gap of 15,000 nurses and allied health professionals, while Dubai will be short of 6,000 physicians and 11,000 nurses.
To address these shortages, healthcare institutions in the UAE are increasingly turning to technology. A 2021 KPMG survey of 200 global healthcare leaders found that 38 per cent had adopted artificial intelligence (AI) to engage with or treat patients. Additionally, 47 per cent utlised remote monitoring, 40 per cent relied on wearables, and 35 per cent employed embedded biometric monitoring, revealing the reliance already on technological solutions.
The Saudi healthcare system is mainly staffed by foreign doctors who constitute about 73 per cent of the total medical workforce. However, the high rate of turnover among these foreigners has resulted in a high cost and threatens the stability of the provided healthcare services in the country. Getting young Saudi talent into these professions is crucial for the sector’s growth, finds a report by Amal N Zawawi and Abeer M Al Rasheed at King Saud University.
As Saudi Arabia adopts new medical technologies, training programmes and short courses can potentially plug the skills gap in areas such as AI, data analytics, robotic medicine, genome sequencing and other cutting-edge health tech. Since 2021, Saudi Arabia has invested US$3.9 billion in R&D and in state-of-the-art biotech clusters like the Saudi Human Genome Program and the Saudi Network for Clinical Trials.
European workforce challenges
In the WHO European Region, in 13 out of 44 countries providing data, at least 40 per cent of doctors are over 55 years old and expected to retire within the next 10 years. Particularly in rural areas, hospitals across Europe are experiencing shortages (nurses, physicians, but also pharmacists and technicians), resulting in insufficient staffing to meet patients’ needs.
In addition, 14.4 per cent of the population aged 18-74, mostly women, provide informal long-term care to family members or friends every week. In addition to not being always adequate and available, this care resource is set to become increasingly scarce in the face of increasing demand.
Health care staff in Spain are older than the European average. Data from the Euro Health Observatory showed that in 2020, 32 per cent of doctors were over 55 years old and 20.9 per cent of nurses were over 55 years old.
In addition, 50,000 health and care workers are estimated to have died in the European Region as a result of COVID-19.
Australia
Australia is also experiencing a demographic shift characterised by an ageing population. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, 16.3 per cent of Australia’s 4.2m plus population are aged 65 or older. The rise in healthcare needs among the elderly population places a greater strain on the healthcare system, necessitating a larger workforce to meet the growing demand. These statistics clearly indicate why the demand for healthcare workers is increasing in Australia. However, many experienced healthcare professionals are reaching retirement age, leading to a significant loss of skilled workers from the workforce. The retirement of experienced individuals creates a gap that needs to be filled by recruiting and training new healthcare workers, yet the pace of replacement has not kept up with the rate of retirements, exacerbating the shortage.
Menopause
As people age, specific health challenges, such as menopause, also affect workforce participation and productivity. Symptoms such anxiety, sleep disturbances, and reduced concentration can significantly impact performance, with some individuals needing to take time off or leave their jobs entirely. Organisations must address such issues openly, breaking stigmas and providing supportive work environments. By treating menopause as a standard health issue, employers can foster inclusivity and retain valuable talent.
Adapting to changing health demands
By 2050, the global population will continue to grow, necessitating additional healthcare resources such as 26,000–43,000 more hospital beds. The combination of ageing populations, chronic disease burdens, and workforce shortages highlights the urgency of innovative solutions across the globe.
With the increase in workforce shortages, demographic shifts, and technological advancements, there is an urgent need for greater investments in education, training and technology, and in particular adopting supportive policies for older workers.
A focus on improving work-life balance, safeguarding mental health, and fostering leadership within the healthcare sector will also be pivotal. Enhanced data systems and increased public investment in workforce education and development are necessary to optimise resource allocation and support innovative workforce policies.
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