Dr Gireesh Kumar, Associate Partner Healthcare Advisory Services at Knight Frank, examines the demand, capacity and opportunities in Riyadh Province
As the economic and administrative capital of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh Province plays a pivotal role in driving the Kingdom’s transformation agenda. Anchored by dynamic urban expansion, advanced healthcare infrastructure, and a strategic shift towards a sustainable, diversified economy, Riyadh is emerging as a key centre of opportunity for healthcare innovation and investment. Digital health and the life sciences sectors are central to the Kingdom’s efforts to enhance healthcare accessibility, improve patient outcomes, and build resilience in supply chains. They also align with broader national ambitions to achieve pharmaceutical self-sufficiency and establish Saudi Arabia as a leading knowledge-based economy. Backed by robust infrastructure, a supportive policy environment, and ongoing transformation initiatives, Riyadh is well-positioned to lead the next wave of healthcare advancement in the region, offering compelling opportunities for investors, innovators, and strategic partners.
The importance of Riyadh
Riyadh Province is home to 27 per cent of the Kingdom’s total population. The province’s population is projected to increase from 9m in 2023 to 12.5m by 2040 (CAGR 2 per cent). Riyadh City, the capital, accounts for just over 80 per cent of the province’s population, which is expected to reach 10.7m by 2040. The city contributes approximately 50 per cent of the Kingdom’s non-oil GDP; hence, it plays a pivotal role in advancing Saudi Arabia’s strategic shift toward a diversified, non-oil-based economy. Aligned with this economic transformation is the National Investment Strategy (NIS), which seeks to enhance the private sector’s contribution to national growth. As a result, more than 500 companies established their regional headquarters in Riyadh by the first half of 2024. This surge in corporate presence has catalysed population migration from within the Kingdom and the region, further solidifying Riyadh’s position as a leading centre for economic activity and professional opportunities.
Demand drivers and demographic shifts
Key demand drivers such as population growth, urbanisation, and the expansion of private health insurance are reshaping service utilisation and influencing healthcare delivery models. Riyadh’s expanding urban footprint and rising population is backed by a strong base of secondary and tertiary care providers, with high-potential zones identified for new investment, capacity expansion, and service diversification. While these trends support national progress, they are associated with lifestyle shifts—changes in diet, physical inactivity and stress—that increase the risk of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). As a result, there will be growing demand for specialised services, with a focus on preventive and chronic disease management.
As of 2022, individuals aged 20–39 years represented the largest segment of the population (46.9 per cent). This age group is projected to increase by 50 per cent by 2040, reflecting sustained internal migration and economic opportunity within the province. Close behind is the 40–64 years age group, which currently accounts for 24.1 per cent of the population. By 2040, this group is projected to be 2.8 times its current size, becoming the second-largest demographic cohort. These shifts indicate a significant transformation within the working-age population, reinforcing the province’s role as a magnet for talent and economic activity.
Simultaneously, the population aged 65 and over is projected to grow the fastest, reaching 2.8 times its current size by 2040. This trend is largely attributed to rising life expectancy and advancements in healthcare infrastructure. As a direct consequence, the province will face a notable increase in demand for elderly care, requiring an estimated 4,000 additional long-term care (LTC) beds. Given a typical facility size of 250 beds, this equates to a need for approximately 15 new LTC facilities by 2040.
Parallel to these demographic developments, the continued rise in NCDs is expected to drive significant demand for specialised healthcare services. Areas such as preventive medicine, endocrinology, cardiology, obstetrics and gynaecology, and mental health will become increasingly vital to address the evolving needs of the population.
Insurance coverage and utilisation
According to the 2024 National Health Survey, approximately 51.8 per cent of Riyadh’s population aged 15 years and above is covered by private health insurance for basic healthcare expenses—the second-highest proportion in the Kingdom, following the Eastern Province (55.9 per cent). The expansion of insurance coverage has catalysed growth in the private sector: between 2015 and 2023, outpatient volume rose to 1.4 times and inpatient volume to 1.9 times their 2015 levels. Furthermore, private-sector growth is illustrated by average visits per person: 2.7 in the private sector versus 1.1 in the public sector. This trend is largely driven by Riyadh’s working-age and expatriate population, who are required to obtain private insurance under the Cooperative Health Insurance System. Additionally, a growing number of Saudi nationals—particularly those employed in the private sector or enrolled in employer-sponsored schemes—are also covered by private insurance plans.
Capacity gaps and zone-level needs
Given this dynamic, it is essential to identify key growth areas and emerging opportunities within different zones of the city that can be leveraged for targeted investments.
The overall analysis indicates a projected gap of 15,300 beds by 2040 based on the global average of 2.9 beds per 1,000 population, and a gap of 2,800 beds based on KSA’s average of 1.9 beds per 1,000 population. While this provides a high-level view of demand, our detailed analysis focuses on specific gaps expected to emerge by 2030 within each zone.
As healthcare demand intensifies across Riyadh—particularly within the northern zones—there is a strategic imperative to move beyond traditional hospital expansion and invest in multidisciplinary, scalable models of care. For private investors, this evolving landscape presents a timely opportunity to pioneer innovative service delivery models that align with national healthcare transformation objectives.
Digital health and life sciences
According to the Ministry of Investment, Saudi Arabia’s digital health market was valued at SAR 698m in 2022 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25 per cent by 2030. Digital health is rapidly emerging as a strategic investment frontier, offering opportunities across virtual care, health-tech innovation, and data-driven models such as centralised platforms, predictive health analytics and critical care. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed global reliance on imported pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and medical devices, so enhancing domestic life-sciences capabilities would improve Saudi Arabia’s self-sufficiency and resilience in future public-health emergencies.
The field of life sciences—including biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, medtech, and diagnostics—represents a high-value, knowledge-driven sector that can attract foreign investment, create high-skilled jobs, and contribute significantly to the non-oil economy. A robust ecosystem will require a talent pool, infrastructure, a streamlined business environment, and funding.
A corresponding increase in inpatient bed capacity is expected by 2030. This projected expansion presents a strategic opportunity to enhance infrastructure through integrated outpatient services such as advanced diagnostic centres, day surgery units, and specialised ambulatory care facilities. Additionally, the rise of new residential communities supports embedding retail clinics within neighbourhoods to improve accessibility and convenience.
Inpatient facilities
By 2030, the western zone is projected to require approximately 1,500–2,000 additional beds, while the eastern and southern zones will need 1,000–1,500 beds, focused on general and specialised healthcare services within the mid-range and affordable segments.
Long-term care facilities
Changing demographic trends—particularly the growing ageing population—present an opportunity for approximately 4,000 long-term care (LTC) beds and differentiated, bespoke offerings such as retirement-living solutions.
Conclusion
Riyadh’s evolving healthcare landscape presents a broad spectrum of investment opportunities, from integrated outpatient and long-term care services in high-demand areas to essential services in underserved regions. Realising this potential will require granular, micro-market assessments to determine the most suitable facility type and market positioning. Strategic, data-driven planning, coupled with alignment to national healthcare priorities, will be critical to capitalising on these opportunities and enhancing the overall delivery of care across the province.
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