Aligning medical education with the needs of public health will help the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia plug the workforce gap, says Mansoor Ahmed, Colliers Executive Director (MEA) and Head of Development Solutions
The economic transformation and diversification plans under Vision 2030 are expected to spur demand for higher education. However, the current enrolment distribution in public universities lacks alignment with the requirements of the employment market, with significant enrolment in humanities, Islamic studies and behavioural sciences.
Colliers expects the demand to shift from traditional offerings to Technology, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Robotic Sciences, Nuclear Energy, Sustainable Energy, Renewable Energy, Solar Energy etc. Additionally, the demand is expected to shift toward evidence-based Research & Development (R&D) studies taking into consideration the economic transformation agenda in Vision 2030 and the changing market demand, rather than traditional fields of study, to reduce the “mis-match” of degrees attained and the requirements of the employment market.
Colliers also expects a significant increase in offering in the health, hospitality and SME sectors. Furthermore, the Saudisation drive in various sectors will drive demand for higher education. Again, Colliers expects the demand in each to be focused on sub-specialties rather than traditional degree courses.
Vision 2030: Demand of Healthcare Professionals
One of the key, yet often ignored, requisites to provide quality healthcare service is the availability of human capital. Without the availability of qualified and specialised human resources, even the best medical facilities with the most advanced medical equipment are not enough.
By 2030, due to an increase in population, which is expected to reach 45m, and the requirement of new healthcare facilities, an additional 19,000 to 20,000 beds will be required based on the KSA’s current average of 2.4 beds/1,000 population respectively. There will be additional demand for doctors, nurses, pharmacists and allied health professionals (AHP).
The demand will be even higher as a part of the Saudisation drive in the healthcare sector as the majority of these jobs must be filled by Saudi nationals. Presently, 63 per cent of doctors, 47 per cent of dentists, 57 per cent of nurses, 18 per cent of AHPs and 61 per cent of pharmacists, a total of around 223,000 medical professionals, are expatriates.
Furthermore, as the Kingdom embarks on the adoption of new medical technologies resulting in demand moving from traditional courses to advanced medical education, additional facilities will be required. Artificial Intelligence (AI), data analytics, robotic medical sciences, genome sequences and short courses will enhance the skillset of doctors, registered nurses (RN) and AHPs, enabling them to opt for specialised positions.
Saudi Arabia will need an additional 32,000 doctors by 2030 and, if we add replacement of expatriate doctors with the Saudi national doctors, it will need 62,500 additional doctors in additional to 32,000. A total of 95,000 doctors is required to tackle critical bed shortages and meet the needs of its growing population, experts have warned.
Plugging the gap
Significant increases in nurses, technicians and medical staff are essential to plug the Kingdom’s chronic bed shortfall with more incentives, such as easing visa regulations, being suggested as ways of attracting and retaining overseas expertise.
There is a direct correlation between number of beds and medical staff. Based on a Colliers estimate, by 2030 KSA will require an additional 200,000 medical staff as follows:
There are two ways of filling this gap — producing more doctors and nursing staff locally, and attracting medical staff from other Arab and Asian countries. However, to do this, KSA needs to look easing its visa rules and regulations.
One of the main challenges faced by private operators in the region, including KSA, is attracting and retaining quality staff, prompting health-care providers to ‘poach’ doctors from the local market rather than hiring from abroad. With a limited pool of established physicians, their salaries have witnessed exceptional growth, to an extent that it is negatively affecting the profitability of hospitals/clinics in KSA.
A large number of doctors, nurses and paramedical staff in KSA migrate to Western countries after a few years due to better opportunities and training facilities. In addition, the current Saudi regulations for recruitment further increase the staff cost due to limited available resources.
The growing and changing composition of the population will dictate the types of bed required. Between 2015 and 2050, about 21m children will be born in KSA, creating demand for healthcare facilities and services relating to mother and childcare, such as obstetrics, gynaecology, and paediatrics.
There is not only a huge demand and supply (capacity) gap but also a definite capability gap. The short-tomedium term areas are mother and child health, geriatrics, oncology and long-term care. Life expectancy in KSA has also increased. These changes will lead to increasing requirement for a larger number of long-term care facilities
Conclusion
Saudis have traditionally gone oversees for healthcare, and it is Colliers’ opinion that they can be targeted if the same hospital brands where they have this treatment can establish branches in KSA.
The focus should be not simply on increasing the number of beds, but in creating more centres of excellence dedicated to day-care surgery, which will reduce demand for bed space.
The government’s role is extremely important in establishing careerfocused educational institutions, such as medical and nursing colleges, to increase the supply of local medical professionals and to drive qualified Saudi talent into jobs. Moreover, to overcome the supply gap, the government needs to provide funding to the private sector and improved employment regulations to be able to attract qualified resources from abroad.
With more targeted medical education within KSA itself, there should be a plentiful supply of homegrown talent to take up the slack and drive the Saudisation of the healthcare system.